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House Price Forecast – August 2019 figures show the increase in house prices is set to continue

  1. 08 August 2019
  2. By Daisy Stephens

The latest figures from our House Price Forecast show that the increase in house prices will continue into the Autumn, with annual growth set to hit 3.1% in September and 2.8% in October.

What is the House Price Forecast?

Our House Price Forecast analyses changes in house prices across the UK and is updated monthly. As homebuyers register for quotes for home move services on the site typically twelve weeks before their purchase completes, we’re able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast based on the purchase price agreed.

Does the data account for any known trends?

Recently we have started providing seasonally and mix adjusted data to account for seasonal trends in house prices and variations in the location and types of properties quoted for.

What’s going to happen to house prices?

Average values are set to rise by 1.5% over the next three months (August to October 2019), continuing their steady climb. Particularly strong growth in August will see prices increase by 3.2%, and whilst they’ll then dip by 1.4% in September, they will be up 3.1% annually – the largest annual increase since November 2018.

Why?

Given the current political and economic climate, it may seem surprising that the housing market is performing so well. The resilience we’re seeing in our House Price Forecast is most likely driven by significant pent up demand from homeowners who need to move but have held off during recent months and years, who now fear the window up to the October Brexit deadline could represent their best opportunity.

While buyers are being selective and seeking bargains, there is also a lack of stock which is helping support values. HMRC have released figures showing that 16.5% fewer property deals were made in June 2019 compared to June 2018, further supporting the idea that a discrepancy between supply and demand of properties is partially responsible for driving the increase in house prices.

Our CEO, Rob Houghton comments: “The outlook for the property market over the next three months is remarkably positive, considering the current political and economic context. The recent election of a new Prime Minister who is committed to leaving the EU on Halloween even if a deal isn’t reached could mean clouds are gathering on the horizon, but any impact on prices in the short term is likely to be mitigated by the urgency of home movers to complete deals in the next three months.

“While the longer term outlook remains uncertain, we could see a Boris Bounce in the property market if he is true to his word over stamp duty reform and stimulates the market through tax cuts at the top and bottom. Scrapping stamp duty for downsizers could be a cost-effective way to stimulate activity throughout the market, freeing up family homes and enabling chains of transactions, at relatively little cost.”

Is the trend the same everywhere?

No – there are broad variations in regional house prices. Whilst more than half of UK regions are set to see prices rise over the next three months, some are heading for a more tumultuous period. Prices in Yorkshire and the Humber are set to fall by 0.3%, and the North East of England is expected to see a fall of 5.4%. The East of England, West Midlands and the North West are also set to see a fall in house prices.

Where can I find more information?

The House Price Forecast is a great tool, whether you’re looking to buy or sell. It can help you decide whether now is the right time, or whether it’s worth holding out and waiting for the market to improve.
You can visit the House Price Forecast to further explore the expected trends adjusted data, year on year change, and regional price differences. You can also sign up to our Market Intelligence Newsletter so you’re the first to know when we next update our data.
 
 

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