House prices to dip over next three months
19 September 2019
By Daisy Stephens
Reallymoving’s September house price forecast shows we can expect an average monthly fall of 0.9% in house prices over the next quarter.
Average prices will dip in September, October and November by 1.4%, 0.3% and 1.0% respectively, equaling a total fall of 2.6%. However, when adjusted for seasonality and mix, average values actually show positive growth over the coming quarter, suggesting the fall in values we can expect is almost entirely due to seasonal changes rather than reflecting a drop in the underlying value of a property.
Year on year house prices are on course to remain in positive territory throughout the autumn. A 3% annual increase forecast for September will be the highest rate of annual house price growth for almost a year. Underlying conditions in the wider economy such as low unemployment, low interest rates and rising household incomes continue to underpin the housing market and support steady year on year growth.
Whilst house prices in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are all expected to rise, the only parts of England expected to see an increase are London and the East and West Midlands.
Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments: “Considering the current political situation, the UK housing market continues to show remarkable resilience. House prices are on course for minor monthly falls in September, October and November, but while the temptation is to attribute this to Brexit, in fact it is largely down to seasonality with the market following its usual pattern of peaking in August then tailing off steadily through autumn.
“The London market has proved to be most vulnerable to the political situation and the data suggests buyers were more cautious in August when No Deal Brexit rhetoric peaked, prompting a 2.3% monthly fall in prices agreed which will translate to completions in November.
“Nationally, annual growth is set to remain in positive territory throughout the autumn, indicating that people are continuing to press ahead with home moves and the underlying value of the housing market remains stable.”
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