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House price growth to be highest since before the EU Referendum

  1. 12 February 2020
  2. By Daisy Stephens

Growing confidence among buyers and sellers following the General Election result is rapidly translating to greater competition among buyers, prompting increases in the value of deals agreed.

Average annual growth in house prices in England and Wales over the next three months (February to April 2020) is on course to reach 4.3%. This will be the highest level seen since the same period just prior to the EU Referendum (February to April 2016) when average annual growth hit 4.5%.

There is also strong monthly house price growth, with prices set to rise an average of 2.4% over the coming quarter. Dips in February (-1.1%) and March (-0.7%) will be mitigated by strong monthly growth of 4.3% in April, as the so-called ‘Boris bounce’ reported in the New Year becomes evident in completed sales.

April will also be the most significant month for annual change, with a predicted change of 5.9% year on year.

Broken down regionally, ten of the twelve areas of the UK are forecast to see prices rise over the next three months, indicating that an improved outlook for the property market and a growing desire to do deals is being felt across the country. The strongest gains will be seen in the North East (10.4%) and North West (9.5%), while only the East Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber will see prices fall over the period (-1.6% and -5.5% respectively).

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments: “Our forecast for annual growth indicates that we’re on course to see the strongest period of year on year price increases since just prior to the EU Referendum in 2016.

“Growing certainty about the UK’s future direction following the General Election appears to be prompting the release of some of the pent-up demand in the market from buyers and sellers who have adopted a policy of ‘wait and see’ over the last few months. This surge of optimism is clearly evident in sales agreed in January, which we anticipate will be visible in Land Registry data in April.

“However, if trade talks between the UK and the EU fail to progress well this brighter outlook for the housing market could be short-lived, in which case this spring could present the best window of opportunity to sell for some time.”

For more information on what to expect with house prices over the next three months, visit our House Price Forecast.

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