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House price growth to slow down into autumn 2021

  1. 26 July 2021
  2. By Jeremy Greer

Our House Price Forecast predicts that as a result of the changes to the Stamp Duty Holiday, house prices will rise at a lower rate until September 2021.

According to the reallymoving House Price Forecast, prices will continue to rise through July and August 2021, but at a smaller rate, and will begin to slightly fall again in September.

The change in the current Stamp Duty holiday is likely to be the reason for this tapering growth, namely that from 30th June Stamp Duty will not be paid on properties worth less than £250,000 as opposed to the previous limit of £500,000. Because theses more expensive properties are no longer in demand, but other properties still are, we can see that prices are still up (going up by 3.8% in July and 0.4% in August), but at a lower rate so as to take advantage of the holiday.

We can see that once the Stamp Duty holiday comes to an end in September 2021, the market is expected to fall back to it’s normal state, albeit slowly, with prices falling by only 0.1% in September.

Compared to the house prices from the same time in 2020, the predicted prices between June and August are up to almost 16% higher. But as expected, the prices in September, though still higher, are dropping to a less dramatic different of +6.3%.

This increase in prices between June and September is expected to take place across the whole of the UK, with every region experiencing a varying increase. The biggest predicted price increase within these three months is expected in the North West of England, with a predicted 11.8% increase, followed closely by Scotland at 9.7%. The region to experience to smallest increase is expected to be London, with just a 0.2% predicted increase in house prices.

You can see more information in our June 2021 Forecast.

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