Overall, both property prices and transaction volumes (seasonally adjusted) have fallen by around 8%, but there are wide regional variations. London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland have been the hardest hit. Our analysis of the UK property market shows that:
• Transaction volumes (seasonally adjusted) fell by 8%
• Property prices are down by 8% across the UK
• Transaction volumes down by 44% in London
• Scottish property buying prices up 15%
The analysis is based on the 35,000 people who registered for quotes for conveyancing, surveys and removals on reallymoving in the four weeks before and after the Brexit referendum (27th May to 23rd June 2016 and 24th June to 21st July 2016.)
Transaction volumes have fallen markedly, down 12% for the month post-Brexit compared to the month before. This is based on conveyancing and survey quote requests on reallymoving. Although some summer seasonal decline is expected, typically around 4-5%, this is a seasonally adjusted 8% fall, an unusually high volume drop.
Average property prices have also fallen markedly, dropping around 8%. This is a significantly larger month on month change than we have seen at any point in the previous 5 years.
Looking at the breakdown in prices and transaction volumes across the UK reveals striking regional differences. While London remains by far the highest priced region, prices have fallen 12% since Brexit, and property purchases down 44%.
The number of property purchases have fallen in all regions, most strongly in London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland, while Wales saw a drop of just 3%.
Although prices fell significantly in London there were even bigger declines in the North East of England and Northern Ireland, both fell 17%. But prices rose by 15% in Scotland, and by a more modest 7% in Wales.
International moves have increased markedly since Brexit*, but only for moves away from the UK, which have increased by 43%. Moves to the UK are broadly unchanged. The most popular destinations for international moves from the UK are to Spain, USA, Canada, Australia, Germany and Italy.
Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving commented:
“It seems clear that Brexit has had a marked impact on the UK property market. The drop in transaction volumes has been striking, particularly in London, the Home Counties & Northern Ireland. In the medium term we would expect volumes to pick up if the price falls are maintained, but it is clear that many prospective home movers are sitting tight until there’s greater clarity over the post-Brexit economy and our likely new relationship with the rest of the EU.”
These findings build on an earlier blog post published 7 days after the Brexit referendum, which suggested a 6% drop in property prices, but a 22% fall in transaction volumes (not seasonally adjusted). The impact on prices has been broadly unchanged since Brexit, but the initial drop in transaction volumes has recovered slightly.
*From 27th May to 21st July 2016 the total number of international removals registrations was 610, and the total overall registrations was 35,598.
See our Brexit infographic for further information.